The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the January employment situation report. Unemployment dropped from 5.0 percent in December to 4.9 percent in January. The month-to-month change in private employment fell to 158,000 from 251,000 in December. Similarly, the month-to-month change in total non-farm employment fell to 151,000 workers (a drop of 111,000 jobs). The report was viewed as disappointing by most.

The report looked even weaker when details are examined. The food services and drinking places, and the retail trade sectors added 72 percent of the 151,000 new jobs. Unfortunately, both sectors are dominated by minimum wage or near minimum wage jobs. Waitressing and bartending may help pay the bills but are not indicative of a strong labor market.

Total employment is not a leading economic indicator of recession. In fact, month-to-month changes in employment are still positive at the beginning of most recessions. We usually do not see employment changes turn negative until we are already in recession, and job losses will sometimes be at their largest shortly after the recession has ended.  Some have argued that the weaker, but still positive, jobs report is an indication that the recession may have already began.

Economic prediction is not an exact science. Timing is everything. Many of the analysts that have been the most bullish have been optimistic for years. History will prove them correct some of the time. Many of the analysts that have been most bearish have, likewise, been pessimistic for years. History will also prove them correct some of the time. In economics, we scan the environment, evaluate risks and opportunities, and make decisions based on probabilities. 

In the kingdom, timing is also critical. How many ministers have fallen because they were promoted too quickly? They, or someone, confused their spiritual gifts with spiritual maturity.

Character usually takes time to develop. Alternatively, how many people have not achieved the fullness of their ministry because they were waiting for the perfect timing to step out in faith by looking at natural circumstances? Fortunately, the Lord has a history of giving His children the perfect timing. And He is the same, yesterday, today and forever.

When the Lord tells us to go, it inherently involves His perfect timing. One of the more famous examples is when the pillar of cloud by day and the pillar of fire by night led the Israelites for 40 years in the desert. When the cloud lifted above the tabernacle, the Israelites would move and follow until it settled again on the tabernacle. They would not move without the pillar moving. By following His glory, the Israelites were assured of His divine timing and direction (Ex. 40: 36-38).

As we hear and follow the voice of the Lord, we will experience His perfect timing. He will fight our battles for us. We are assured of victory. David was told to wait until he heard the sound of marching in the treetops and the Lord would fight his battles. David obeyed. He experienced victory over the Philistine army.

"'When you hear the sound of marching in the tops of the trees, pay attention, because at that point the Lord is going before you to defeat the army of the Philistines.' So David did just as the Lord commanded, and he defeated the Philistines from Geba as far as Gezer" (2 Sam. 5:24-25, MEV).

As the temple of the Holy Spirit, we have been empowered to know His perfect timing and direction. Paul was prevented by the Holy Spirit from preaching the Word in Asia, from going to Bithynia, and was led to go to Macedonia (Acts 16:6-10). We have the same Holy Spirit.

Dr. James R. Russell is professor of economics and chair of the Undergraduate College of Business at Oral Roberts University in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

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