At this writing, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (New York Mercantile Exchange) is trading at $29.11 per barrel. Oil traded at more than $65 per barrel within the last year, $93 within the last two years and $106 within the last five years.
Demand for oil is especially soft with the global economic slowdown; especially in China. Supplies are already burdensome, and Iran should be adding to world supplies by 500,000 barrels per day shortly.
Is the drop in oil prices a good thing or bad thing? From the perspective of consumers, lower gasoline prices are a bonus. But oil producers are feeling the pinch. Oil rigs are being idled. Oil workers are being laid off. Producers of oilfield equipment are losing money and shuttering operations. Energy company stock prices have been falling sharply. Airlines and trucking companies have seen their current fuel prices plummet and are able to lock in lower fuel costs for the future. Oil sector loans have become suspect. The answer to the original question depends on one's perspective.
But from the perspective of an economist, concerns about a deflationary price spiral are increasing. Low energy prices, industrial commodity prices, U.S. rail shipments, global ocean shipping rates and a depressed manufacturing sector add downward pressure to prices.
With a deflationary price spiral, consumers postpone purchases in anticipation of lower prices, which cause prices to be lower, which increases expectations of lower prices, which provides further incentive to delay purchases. Profits fall. Laborers are no longer needed. Incomes fall. Purchases and demand are curtailed further. Recovery from downward price spirals can be slow as Japan can attest.
In the kingdom of God, His perspective prevails. As representatives of the King, we are called to be lights in a world of darkness. Distractions abound. Potential stressors are abundant. Different perspectives will be plentiful. But we are here on a mission, as children of the Most High. We should have the perspective of our King.
"You are the light of the world. A city that is set on a hill cannot be hidden. Neither do men light a candle and put it under a basket, but on a candlestick. And it gives light to all who are in the house. Let your light so shine before men that they may see your good works and glorify your Father who is in heaven" (Matt. 5:14-16).
In times of turmoil, our minds will attempt to focus on the task which is deemed to be most urgent. Our minds are not preprogrammed to focus on the most important task. We need to be transformed by the renewing of our minds to focus on the most important task. This would be the King's perspective.
"Do not be conformed to this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your mind, that you may prove what is the good and acceptable and perfect will of God" (Rom. 12:2).
Similarly, as ministers, we hear many perspectives every day. All are valuable. Some are more valuable than others. But it is critical that we determine the King's perspective and follow His guidance.
We are privileged to be members of the kingdom and sons and daughters of the King. Our King is always faithful. He is all-powerful. He knows the beginning from the end. His thoughts and ways are far above ours. His perspective is always right.
"For My thoughts are not your thoughts, nor are your ways My ways, says the Lord. For as the heavens are higher than the earth, so are My ways higher than your ways, and My thoughts than your thoughts" (Is. 55:8-9).
Dr. James R. Russell is professor of economics and chair of the Undergraduate College of Business at Oral Roberts University in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
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